The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and CWT, a self-described business to business for employees platform, are peering into their crystal ball—backed by a healthy dose of data—to prognosticate what the near future of business travel could look like. As a supplement to their Global Business Travel Forecast, the organizations have released a supplement called 2040: Baseline, Boom, or Bust, which focuses on three scenarios that could impact the state of corporate travel in the coming decades.
The supplement recognizes the rapid changes in demographic shifts and global volatility in addition to emerging technologies as part of its considerations. Further, it offers recommendations to businesses to navigate the changing landscape and prepare their companies for the evolution.
Among the interesting observations is the prediction that the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) for ground transportation could become standard practice as the push for sustainable travel intensifies, meaning that ground transportation could replace short-haul flights—that is, if virtual tech doesn’t replace the “need” to travel.
The potential scenarios addressed include:
- Base Case: Business travel is projected to stabilize with a moderate growth rate, reaching just over 1 billion passengers by 2040. This growth is driven by a balanced approach to sustainability and technology, with companies adopting eco-friendly practices and advanced travel management tools. Companies will prioritize essential travel, leveraging virtual meeting technologies to enhance efficiency. The percentage of the workforce involved in business travel is expected to rise to nearly 18%, reflecting a steady but measured increase.
- Boom: Under the boom scenario, business travel experiences robust growth, with the number of global business travelers exceeding 1.2 billion passengers by 2040. This surge is fueled by increased travel to emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, which are projected to account for a substantial portion of the growth. The widespread adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and advancements in green technology contribute to this scenario. Nearly 22% of the global workforce is involved in business travel, driven by heightened global collaboration and the integration of AI, VR, and automation in travel processes.
- Bust: In the bust scenario—the most pessimistic of the three—business travel growth slows significantly, with the number of business travelers reaching around 800 million by 2040. This slowdown is attributed to stringent sustainability regulations, slow adoption of eco-friendly practices, and the rise of remote and flexible work arrangements. Companies will increasingly rely on virtual interactions and hybrid events, focusing on essential trips only. Geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty further contribute to the reduction in travel, with stricter visa regulations and carbon taxes playing a role in the diminished travel demand.
“The future of business travel is at a critical juncture, driven by technological advancements, sustainability mandates, and evolving global dynamics,” said CWT EVP & Chief Customer Officer Nick Vournakis. “Our report emphasizes the need for businesses to be adaptable and proactive in their travel strategies. Whether navigating a boom in global travel or adapting to a slowdown, businesses that proactively integrate technology, prioritize sustainability, and stay agile will be best positioned to thrive in this shifting landscape.”
The full report is available here.
Visit gbta.org for more information.
[10.22.24]